info specialist
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Posted - 2009.10.07 22:37:00 -
[1]
 Originally by: SencneS
Originally by: Carniflex
It's like oil. Good portion of 'the market' is just the usual speculation. As the speculators can be sure on one thing - the price will go down - then most of them are probably getting out of dyspo and promethium markets.
This is so close to accurate it's not funny...
I created a xls that basically tells me how much complex reactions are needed to full all the T2 ships sold in a given time frame. The data harvesting is rather long and time consuming, but one thing was blatently clear.... The amount of movement of some reactions was 50 fold higher then the actual consumption.
Now, I know part of this is because if you are a T2 builder but you don't sell in Jita, you probably need to buy up stock, the place you get lots of stock for a good long time is Jita, so people buy up reactions in Jita then go build a HEAP of stuff, then sell the finished product elsewhere. However, the sheet doesn't include component sales, in which people buy up reactions somewhere else, sell the components in Jita, people buy the components and make ships out of the components.
So while the little XLS sheet I created was a great benchmark for usage I actually use it as a hint to which reactions where not getting manipulated very much. And it worked pretty damn well. 
On the first page of this thread I posted a link to a picture which showed January to February 2009 Ship sales in Jita.
If you look at Ferrogel's usage to build all those ships it was not even 3 million units. THREE MILLION UNITS!!
Yet even right at this very point in time when Ferrogel has seen a reduction of over HALF the movement it is STILL seeing 1-1.5mil units a DAY! How can 45 days of ship sales equaling to 3mil units of consumption equate into, at the time, an average of 1.5mil units a day.
The conclusion is a majority of the movement of all reactions is actually market manipulation, people buying stuff then reselling at a higher price. In times like this, the same unit of complex reaction could be purchased and sold many times over before it even gets used.
I'm redoing my sheet now before the patch and after just for stools and giggles. :)
How wrong can this be? 
If you have ever baby sat market orders all day and all night trying to move something or trying to fill something, you would know sometimes orders are never sold to buy orders, and others they are never bought to sell orders. You can be sitting at the best price in both directions and see movement in only one direction. What you see as inacurate and misguided information is simply parts of different puzzles get done in Jita. It is way to far off to use jita as a sole source of info. my .02 isk worth
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